{"id":56939,"date":"2020-03-20T16:51:38","date_gmt":"2020-03-20T20:51:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/?p=56939"},"modified":"2020-03-20T17:01:45","modified_gmt":"2020-03-20T21:01:45","slug":"%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%a4%be%e5%8c%ba%e9%81%8f%e5%88%b6%e6%8e%aa%e6%96%bd%e5%8f%af%e6%8a%91%e5%88%b6covid-19%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%a4%be%e5%8c%ba%e9%81%8f%e5%88%b6%e6%8e%aa%e6%96%bd%e5%8f%af%e6%8a%91%e5%88%b6covid-19%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7814\u7a76\uff1a\u793e\u533a\u904f\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\u53ef\u6291\u5236COVID-19\u7684\u6307\u6570\u589e\u957f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/containment-efforts-appear-to-step-covid-19-spread-down-from-exponential-norm-Ziffcoronavirus_HD_PROD.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-56898\" src=\"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/containment-efforts-appear-to-step-covid-19-spread-down-from-exponential-norm-Ziffcoronavirus_HD_PROD.jpg\" alt=\"The deaths in China changed from exponential (curved) growth to the straight line of a power law before tapering off. Meanwhile, deaths outside China continue to follow an exponential curve. This shows that while the virus is being successfully managed in China, it is essentially uncontrolled in the rest of the world. Robert and Anna Ziff applied logarithmic scales to both the days axis and the death axis to make the difference between exponential and power law growth easier to see. Data source: World Health Organization. Image credit: Steve Alvey\/University of Michigan Engineering\" width=\"2560\" height=\"2085\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u6839\u636e\u5bc6\u897f\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u793e\u533a\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u904f\u5236\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53ef\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u963b\u6b62COVID-19\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u901f\u5ea6\u5feb\u901f\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u800c\u540e\u968f\u7740\u4eba\u53e3\u514d\u75ab\u800c\u8870\u51cf\uff0c\u5728\u8fd9\u4efd\u5c1a\u672a\u7ecf\u8fc7\u540c\u884c\u8bc4\u5ba1\u7684\u9884\u5370\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u904f\u5236\u5de5\u4f5c\u5c06COVID-19\u9ad8\u6b7b\u4ea1\u589e\u957f\u5927\u5e45\u5ea6\u964d\u4f4e\u3002\u5e42\u5f8b\u5206\u5e03\u53ef\u4ee5\u66f4\u597d\u89e3\u91ca\u8be5\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5e42\u5b9a\u5f8b\u65b9\u7a0b\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u65b0\u7684\u51a0\u72b6\u75c5\u6bd2SARS-CoV-2\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ee5\u5206\u5f62\u6a21\u5f0f\u6216\u4ee5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5c0f\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u64ad\u3002\u5bc6\u897f\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u5316\u5b66\u5de5\u7a0b\u6559\u6388\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u9f50\u592b\uff08Robert Ziff\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f3c\u4e4e\u5df2\u7ecf\u6210\u529f\u5730\u904f\u5236\u4e86\u8fd9\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\uff0c\u4f46\u5728\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u65b9\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u75c5\u6bd2\u4ecd\u5728\u5448\u6307\u6570\u7ea7\u589e\u957f\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\uff0c\u8be5\u75c5\u6bd2\u5728\u91c7\u53d6\u793e\u4f1a\u9694\u79bb\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u5730\u533a\u4f20\u64ad\u901f\u5ea6\u51cf\u6162\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u5305\u62ec\uff1a\u9694\u79bb\uff1b\u5173\u95ed\u5b66\u6821\u3001\u996d\u5e97\u548c\u5546\u5e97\uff1b\u53d6\u6d88\u6d3b\u52a8\uff1b\u4ee5\u53ca\u51fa\u95e8\u9650\u5236\u3002\u8be5\u75c5\u6bd2\u4ecd\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u4f20\u64ad\u5230\u6ca1\u6709\u91c7\u53d6\u8fd9\u4e9b\u63aa\u65bd\u7684\u793e\u533a\u3002\u968f\u7740\u66f4\u591a\u793e\u533a\u8fc5\u901f\u5b9e\u65bd\u904f\u5236\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u75c5\u6bd2\u4f20\u64ad\u8303\u56f4\u5c06\u7f29\u5c0f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u675c\u514b\u5927\u5b66\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u535a\u58eb\u751f\uff0c\u8fd9\u7bc7\u6587\u7ae0\u7684\u7b2c\u4e00\u4f5c\u8005\u5b89\u5a1c\u00b7\u9f50\u592b\uff08Anna Ziff\uff09\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u9700\u8981\u505a\u66f4\u591a\u7684\u5de5\u4f5c\u6765\u4e86\u89e3\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u7684\u4e0d\u540c\u8d8b\u52bf\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7ed3\u679c\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e86\u516c\u5171\u536b\u751f\u6307\u5bfc\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u4ee5\u53ca\u9075\u5faa\u8fd9\u4e9b\u6307\u793a\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u6027\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u5bf9\u7236\u5973\u6863\u4e8e2\u670817\u65e5\u5c06\u5176\u5206\u6790\u7ed3\u679c\u53d1\u5e03\u81f3Medrxiv\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u4e8e3\u67081\u65e5\u505a\u4e86\u66f4\u65b0\u3002\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6570\u636e\uff0c\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u6b7b\u4ea1\u6570\u636e\u6bd4\u611f\u67d3\u6570\u636e\u66f4\u53ef\u9760\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u8bb8\u591a\u643a\u5e26\u8be5\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4eba\u5458\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u5448\u73b0\u75c7\u72b6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd1\u51e0\u5468\u6765\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u5eb7\u590d\u7684\u60a3\u8005\u4eba\u6570\u6bd4\u611f\u67d3\u75c5\u4f8b\u9ad8\u51fa\u8fd1\u4e00\u500d\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5c0f\u7ec4\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u7684COVID-19\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u5448\u6307\u6570\u66f2\u7ebf\u3002\u7f57\u4f2f\u7279\u00b7\u9f50\u592b\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u5728\u4e16\u754c\u4e0a\u5927\u591a\u6570\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\uff0c\u6bcf\u5929\u7684\u75c5\u4f8b\u6570\u5c1a\u672a\u8fbe\u5230\u5cf0\u503c\uff0c\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4eba\u6570\u53ef\u80fd\u8fd8\u4f1a\u589e\u52a0\u3002\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u5c3d\u7ba1\u7814\u7a76\u5c0f\u7ec4\u627f\u8ba4\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u53d6\u51b3\u4e8e\u4e2d\u56fd\u6570\u636e\u7684\u51c6\u786e\u6027\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u8ba4\u4e3a\u901a\u8fc7\u8fc5\u901f\u8bc6\u522b\u548c\u904f\u5236\uff0c\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u963b\u6b62\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6839\u636e\u5bc6\u897f\u6839\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u4e00\u9879\u65b0\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u8bb8\u591a\u793e\u533a\u91c7\u53d6\u7684\u904f\u5236\u884c\u52a8\uff0c\u53ef\u66f4\u6709\u6548\u963b\u6b62COVID-19\u7684\u5feb\u901f\u4f20\u64ad\u3002 \u5c3d\u7ba1\u75c5\u6bd2\u7684\u4f20\u64ad\u901f <a href=\"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/%e7%a0%94%e7%a9%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%a4%be%e5%8c%ba%e9%81%8f%e5%88%b6%e6%8e%aa%e6%96%bd%e5%8f%af%e6%8a%91%e5%88%b6covid-19%e7%9a%84%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e5%a2%9e%e9%95%bf\/\" class=\"readmore\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":56898,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[25366,25380,25386,24606],"tags":[],"beat":[25463,25462],"class_list":["post-56939","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chinese-translations-zh-hans","category-health-zh-hans","category-science-technology-zh-hans","category-24606","initiative-coronavirus"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56939","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56939"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56939\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":56940,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56939\/revisions\/56940"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/56898"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56939"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56939"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56939"},{"taxonomy":"beat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/news.umich.edu\/zh-hans\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/beat?post=56939"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}