ANN ARBOR—Although job growth in robust Oakland County has slowed considerably since early last year, 23,000 new private- sector jobs will be created this year and another 33,000 will be added next year, University of Michigan researchers predict.

“The slowing during 1995 coincided with a national economy that was already weakening in response to the Federal Reserve’s raising of interest rates a year earlier,” says economist George A. Fulton of the U-M Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations

“The Oakland County economy will once again regain momentum in 1996 and maintain its prominence throughout 1997.”

In their annual forecast of the Oakland County economy, Fulton and ILIR colleagues Donald R. Grimes and Peter Nicolas predict job gains of 3.8 percent in 1996 and 5.1 percent in 1997.

“We project employment to grow at an annual rate of 5.5 percent this spring and expect it to accelerate to 7.5 percent this summer, with the opening of Somerset Collection North and some expansion of auto facilities,” Fulton says. “At the end of this year and during 1997, local employment growth is forecast to settle in at a healthy and above-trend rate.”

The researchers expect overall employment in Oakland County to reach 670,000 in 1997, with manufacturing jobs increasing from 115,000 in 1995 to 122,000 in 1997—the highest level ever recorded for this sector.

Auto industry employment is expected to hold steady this year, but should add 2,000 jobs in 1997, thanks to a stronger national economy and anticipated employment gains at Chrysler Corp. headquarters and the General Motors Truck and Bus Technical Center, they say.

“Moderate employment growth should occur in almost all other manufacturing industries, except for food processing, which is expected to continue to decline,” Fulton says. “We anticipate, however, that electrical machinery and instruments will have the fastest employment growth in the manufacturing sector.”

Overall, the manufacturing job growth rate should expand from 2.1 percent in 1995 to 2.4 percent in 1996 and to 3.4 percent in 1997, according to the forecast.

Non-manufacturing jobs are projected to increase by 20,000 in 1996 and another 29,000 in 1997, with retail trade expected to gain 7,000 jobs over the two years—following five years of virtually no growth, the researchers say.

Business and professional services, they add, should account for the largest non-manufacturing employment gains over the next two years with an increase of 21,000 jobs (a rise of nearly 18 percent).

In all, growth in non-manufacturing jobs this year is expected to remain similar to 1995’s rate of 4 percent, but should increase to 5.5 percent in 1997, the forecast shows.

Once again, the researchers predict that private-sector employment in Oakland County will grow more than twice as fast as that of Michigan as a whole through the end of next year.

“Although Oakland County has only a 17 percent share of private employment in the state, it accounts for nearly 40 percent of private-sector job gains during the next two years,” Fulton says. “While job growth is expected to be much more rapid in the non-manufacturing sector than in the manufacturing sector, for both the county and the state, Oakland’s much more robust manufacturing sector, compared with the state’s, gives it a large advantage.”

Since 1990, Oakland County’s growth of 13.8 percent in private-sector jobs is the best among major local economies in Michigan, the researchers say. Moreover, employment in the county has grown about twice as fast as the nation during this decade.

In addition, the study shows that Oakland County’s 1993 per capita income of $33,641 is the highest in Michigan and among the top 1 percent in the nation.

Compared with 25 other large suburban counties in the United States, Oakland County ranked ninth in total private employment growth during 1979-1993.

The 11th annual U-M forecast of Oakland County’s economy was sponsored by 25 Oakland County organizations. Its presentation was hosted by the county’s Development and Planning Division, NBD Bank and Oakland Community College.