ANN ARBOR—While much has been reported on the growing popularity of talk radio, the size of its audience has remained largely unchanged over the last three years, according to a University of Michigan study.

Using data from 13 Times Mirror Center polls since 1993, Michael Traugott, U-M professor of communication studies, found that the number of regular listeners of call-in shows on current events, public issues and politics has remained constant?from 17 percent of respondents in May 1993 to 18 percent in March 1996. The relative size of the regular audience for shows hosted by the likes of Rush Limbaugh, Bob Grant, G. Gordon Liddy and others has ranged from a high of 22 percent in June 1994 to a low of 15 percent in October of that year, Traugott says. “The ‘conventional wisdom’ that the talk-radio audience is growing is not supported,” he says. “Neither the size of the audience nor its demography and ideology seem to have shifted over time.”

According to the study, which analyzed survey samples ranging from 1,000 to 3,800 respondents over the last three years, a higher proportion of men (ranging from 18 percent to 26 percent in the 13 surveys) than women (12 percent-19 percent) regularly listen to talk radio. While Traugott found no difference in attention to talk radio among whites and minorities, his results show that Americans under 30 are less likely to listen regularly and that those with household incomes over $50,000 and with college educations are more apt to tune in.

In addition, a greater percentage of Republicans (18 percent- 28 percent) than Democrats (12 percent-19 percent) or independents (14 percent-22 percent) say they are regular listeners of talk radio, he says. Moreover, those who voted for George Bush in the 1992 presidential election and those who currently disapprove of Bill Clinton’s handling of the presidency are more likely to listen regularly than those who support Clinton.

But, Traugott adds, there is no indication that the size of talk radio’s audience has increased since 1993 or that its composition has changed significantly or regularly. “White men are no more likely to be listening for long hours to right-wing shows than they were three years ago,” he says. “Neither are Republicans, nor the people who voted against Clinton in 1992, nor the people who are unhappy with the way he is doing his job.”

Traugott says, however, that it may be possible?even likely?that listeners now are more likely to attribute their political viewpoints to talk radio, and that the psychological benefits they reap from listening, as well as the likelihood of their becoming politically mobilized, have changed. The study also shows that frequent talk-radio listeners are more likely to pay attention to government, politics and domestic news, are more apt to hold politically conservative views, and are no less likely than occasional listeners to believe that politicians care about the opinions of ordinary citizens.

“The data do not suggest that the audience is composed of listeners with a wide range of political views,” Traugott says. “In general, the listeners seem to have a clear sense of what they are looking for and what to expect when they tune in. There may be some heterogeneity in the range of offerings across the genre, but the content within a given show does not reflect an open exchange of political points of view.” Traugott’s colleagues on the study included U-M graduate students Adam Berinsky, Katherine Cramer, Margaret Howard, Russell Mayer, Harvey Prieto Schuckman, David Tewksbury and Margaret Young.

University of Michigan