Study shows immigration “push,” welfare “pull” on poor children

ANN ARBOR—Families with poor children are more likely to leave states with large and growing immigrant populations than they are to move to states with high welfare benefits, according to a University of Michigan study.

The study by William H. Frey, a demographer at the U-M Population Studies Center, appears in the current (September) issue of Population and Environment. It provides the most detailed look to date at geographic shifts in the U.S. population of poor children. Frey uses 1990 U.S. Census data to assess the migration patterns of different types of families with children under the age of 18. He analyzes the selective impact of foreign immigration and domestic migration on child poverty populations in all 50 states, and he examines the relative effects of foreign immigration and welfare benefits on moves from one state to another. Among the key findings:

–Poor immigrant children move to different states than poor children who move from within the United States. Poor children from abroad are most likely to move to California, New York, Texas, Florida and Massachusetts, while poor children already living here are most likely is to move to Washington, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Tennessee and Ohio.

This demographic displacement of poor native-born children by poor immigrant children is most pronounced in California. Between 1985 and 1990, Frey found, 100,754 poor immigrant children moved into the state and 16,004 poor children, mostly English-speaking, moved out. For the most part, Frey’s analysis shows, white and Black children in families headed by single women were displaced by Hispanic children in families headed by two parents.

–Poor white children and poor Black children move to different states. Blacks are most likely to move to Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Virginia and Ohio, while whites are most likely to wind up in Washington, Tennessee, Arkansas, Michigan and Oregon.

–Poor children move to different states than children from families with higher incomes. (See attached maps.)

–Families with poor children are more responsive to the economic and social pushes associated with high immigration than to the pull of relatively high welfare benefits. According to Frey, the migration of poor children from a state is significantly affected by high foreign immigration levels. That effect seems to be stronger for whites than for Blacks, and for children in female-headed households than for families headed by two parents. In contrast, the attraction of state welfare benefit levels was insignificant.

According to Frey, the new findings have implications for U.S. education, immigration and welfare policies. “Since distinctly different demographics are emerging in high immigration states such as California, New York or Texas, the kinds of schooling and social services necessary for poor children may be very different from those required in low immigration states and those receiving large numbers of poor children from other states,” he says. “This argues for even greater localized solutions to child poverty which, in some areas, might focus on assimilation and bilingual education in the schools, and in other areas, on the problems of female-headed families gaining access to schooling and jobs in inner cities or rural areas.”