EXPERT ANALYSIS

Justin Huang, assistant professor of marketing at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, has been closely watching the TikTok saga—and shares some insights on potential outcomes with the deadline looming for banning the social media platform.

A TikTok sale is announced

“There’s been speculation of an acquisition by Blackstone, General Atlantic and Susquehanna International Group, with Oracle ensuring data security. The major sticking point here will be Chinese government approval, as TikTok’s prized algorithm is subject to Chinese technology export restrictions.

“So far, there’s been no indication China is willing to budge on this absent U.S. concessions in other areas as part of a broader economic agreement. There is a small chance that TikTok could be sold without its algorithm or through a more complex licensing agreement, as TikTok’s U.S. operations are already siloed through its investments in TikTok US Data Security and Project Texas.”

TikTok receives another extension via executive order

“This is the easiest and most likely outcome. President Donald Trump has said he would ‘probably’ consider an extension to ensure a favorable outcome and that he would ‘like to see TikTok remain alive.’ While a few senators and members of Congress have raised objections to the previous executive order extension, they are unlikely to block a further one or pass legislation formalizing the ban.

“This Band-Aid solution minimizes short-term disruption but does little to reduce uncertainty for creators, businesses and advertisers trying to plan long-term strategies on the platform.”

TikTok gets banned

“If this occurs, we can expect users, creators, small businesses and advertisers to migrate to competing platforms including RedNote, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts. RedNote surprised many by becoming the most downloaded U.S. app during the initial TikTok ban in mid-January, fueled in part by public backlash toward Congress and Meta.

“This outcome would be the worst-case scenario for many small businesses and creators who would face significant challenges reestablishing their presence on competing platforms. I’d also highlight some recent research by my colleagues Dante Donati and Hortense Fong, which shows ad prices on competing platforms rose by 10% in the wake of the first ban, negatively impacting businesses which advertised on the platform and placing disproportionate burdens on small businesses in particular.”