EXPERTS ADVISORY

After the court in The Hague denied China’s claims in the strategic South China seaway, ASEAN members along with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry have been unable to agree on a communique.

Experts at the University of Michigan can discuss the various issues surrounding the dispute.

John Ciorciari is an associate professor at the Ford School of Public Policy. His research focuses on Southeast Asia and examines foreign policy strategies, human rights and the reform of international economic institutions.

“ASEAN members have much to gain from a rules-based regional order and multilateral diplomacy, which helps them pool their influence and restrain external powers,” he said. “As an association, ASEAN loses power and relevance when it punts on the most important regional issues. Yet ASEAN operates by consensus, and when push comes to shove, national interests tend to trump regional solidarity.

“Aid has won China some close friends in Southeast Asia, and Cambodia in particular has been quite willing to cast vetoes on communique language inimical to Chinese interests. Kerry faces an uphill battle trying to convince all 10 ASEAN members to call on China and others to respect the PCA ruling.”

Contact: 734-615-6947, [email protected]

Linda Lim, professor of strategy at the Ross School of Business, is an expert on political economy of local and multinational business in Southeast Asia.

“China’s refusal to accept the South China Sea tribunal ruling adds to global uncertainty (following Brexit, the Trump presidential nomination, etc.) about the continuation of the rules-based international system on which post-World War II peace, security and economic prosperity has been built—with China itself arguably the greatest beneficiary.”

Contact: 734-763-0290, [email protected] 

Mary Gallagher, associate professor of political science and director of the Lieberthal-Rogel Center for Chinese Studies, is an expert on Chinese politics, law and society.

“China is unlikely to change its behavior in reaction to the unfavorable ruling by the international tribunal regarding its South China Sea claims. It has put pressure on nearby smaller countries like Cambodia to support China’s position and it seeks to delegitimize the authority of the tribunal in the global and domestic media,” She said.

“This is likely to exacerbate tension with the United States and other claimants in the dispute, Vietnam and Philippines in particular. The real fear is that the tribunal’s ruling encourages China to move more aggressively to change the status quo in the SCS itself through accelerated building and land reclamation as well as more frequent military exercises. Actual conflict in the SCS, either accidental or deliberate, seems more likely than ever”.

Contact: 734-615-9154, [email protected]