EXPERTS ADVISORY

As deadly storms batter the U.S. in the South and Midwest, the National Weather Service is warning of “life-threatening, catastrophic and potentially historic” floods.

Experts at the University of Michigan are available to comment on the event as the rains continue through the weekend and on the associated public health risks, the role of climate change in flooding and how cities can adapt.

Jonathan Overpeck, an interdisciplinary climate scientist and dean of the School for Environment and Sustainability, is an expert on climate and weather extremes, sea-level rise, the impacts of climate change and options for dealing with it. He served as a lead author on the authoritative Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 and 2014 reports.

“Given worsening climate change, it’s always wise to take warnings of excessive rainfall and potential flooding seriously,” Overpeck said. “As the atmosphere warms due to the human-caused greenhouse effect, it can—and often does—hold more moisture than decades ago. So, when meteorological conditions are ripe for rain, it can often rain more and rain harder, the perfect storm for flooding. Be careful and take flood warnings seriously.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Tony Reames is an associate professor at the School for Environment and Sustainability, where he founded the Urban Energy Justice Lab and the Energy Equity Project. He is also the director of the U-M SEAS Detroit Sustainability Clinic. He served as deputy director for Energy Justice and principal deputy director for State and Community Energy Programs at the U.S. Department of Energy in the Biden administration.

“Extreme flooding can lead to rivers bursting their banks, overstressing outdated infrastructure, and inflicting severe damage on homes, particularly in low-lying or poorly drained areas,” Reames said. “In cities like Detroit, these conditions often worsen existing housing vulnerabilities, disproportionately affecting low-income and minoritized communities.

“Our work in Detroit underscores the critical need for resilient infrastructure and proactive community engagement to address these challenges. Equitable solutions and investments must prioritize the most vulnerable areas to effectively mitigate the impacts of flooding. By collaborating with local leaders and residents, we can develop strategies that are both innovative and inclusive, ensuring a more equitable, just and sustainable future.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Julie Arbit is a researcher with the Center for Social Solutions who focuses on projects that bridge practitioners with communities in disasters, water infrastructure and the water workforce. She recently co-authored a report advocating for improving the infrastructure the National Weather Service uses to model and predict floods.

“These storms are long-lasting and have caused widespread devastation, with threats of record-breaking winds and rainfall looming into the weekend. While the entire region faces serious risk, forecasting models and infrastructure are limited in their ability to deliver highly localized warnings, especially as weather patterns grow more erratic,” Arbit said. “As a result, many people develop ‘warning fatigue’ when large geographic areas, like counties, receive warnings for storms that don’t really affect everyone in the area. This makes it harder to distinguish between warnings for mildly disruptive storms versus truly life-threatening events, and people can become desensitized as a result.

“Whether you fall in this desensitized camp or stay up-to-date on every warning and radar map, a key to weathering the storm is understanding your surroundings: Where are the trickling creeks that can flood nearby roads in a matter of minutes? Where do you see large tree branches near power lines? What furniture on the floor of your basement could grow mold in just an inch of water?

“Check in with neighbors, especially those who rely on electricity for medical equipment, or have limited mobility. Resilience isn’t innate—it’s built through local awareness, preparation, and shared knowledge of a community’s needs and priorities.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Mohammed Ombadi is an assistant professor of climate and space sciences and engineering at the College of Engineering. He can speak about why Detroit is vulnerable to flooding, and he is researching methods to increase the city’s resilience to flooding.

“Detroit is increasingly vulnerable to flooding due to several interconnected factors. The city is experiencing more intense precipitation extremes as a result of global warming, which exacerbates the likelihood of flash floods and overwhelms existing drainage systems,” Ombadi said. “Additionally, a shift in winter precipitation from snow to rain increases the volume of runoff during colder months, further stressing infrastructure.

“A portion of Detroit’s infrastructure, including stormwater systems, was designed for a climate that no longer exists, leaving it ill-equipped to handle modern rainfall patterns. Finally, fluctuating water levels in the Detroit River pose a heightened risk for neighborhoods along its banks, making them more susceptible to flooding. These combined factors underscore the urgent need for adaptive urban planning and climate-resilient infrastructure to safeguard the city from the increasing threat of flooding.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Andrew Hoffman is a professor of sustainable enterprise, a position that holds joint appointments at the Ross School of Business and the School for Environment and Sustainability. His research uses organizational behavior models and theories to understand the cultural and institutional aspects of environmental issues for organizations.

“Increased storm frequency and severity is the new normal of a climate changed world. This is the conclusion of the nation’s scientists, but more directly, it is the conclusion of the nation’s insurers,” Hoffman said. “Home insurance is increasing rapidly around the country in response to extreme weather payouts. And it is not just the major headline grabbing storms.

“Second perils—an insurance industry term for floods, hailstorms, strong winds, lightning strikes, tornadoes and wildfires that generate small to midsize damage—is becoming the main driver of the insurability challenge. And these are the most concern here in the Midwest. To stay solvent, insurers are raising rates, reducing coverage and even walking away from certain markets as uninsurable. Insurance, in many ways, is the canary in the proverbial coal mine that the climate is changing.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Valeriy Ivanov is a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the College of Engineering. His research touches on land surface hydrology, ecohydrology, floods and climate impact assessments, with an emphasis on uncertainty quantification.

“The National Weather Service has issued flood watches affecting 32 million people as a severe weather forecast predicts catastrophic flooding across a large area from Arkansas to Ohio, with some regions potentially receiving over a foot of rain,” Ivanov said. “They highlight the risk of life-threatening flash floods, particularly in western Kentucky and parts of Tennessee and Arkansas. Major rivers, including the Ohio and Wabash, are expected to experience significant rises, potentially leading to record flooding in Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri and Mississippi.

“Currently, several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible from central Texas across Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas into the lower Ohio Valley by Friday and Friday night. Lower Michigan can receive up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in the next five days. Communities should be urged to prepare for extensive and possibly long-lasting disruptions of daily life routines due to these extreme weather conditions.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Richard Rood is a professor emeritus of climate and space sciences and engineering at the College of Engineering and professor emeritus at the School of Environment and Sustainability.

“A slow-moving storm in the center of the country is expected to bring what the National Weather Service is describing as generational flooding—or a once in a lifetime event,” Rood said. “Water is expected in places that do not normally flood. This follows a weather system that not only started to build up water in the soil, but caused more than 60 tornadoes. People could have to deal with damage from both flooding on top of damage from the tornadoes.

“The heavy rains are fueled by enhanced evaporation from the Gulf of Mexico, which is about 2°F warmer than the 30-year average. The weather system is typical of the current warming climate and highlights the challenges of coping with the emerging weather, as well as the language of watches and warnings.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Abby Hutson is a research scientist at the School for Environment and Sustainability and the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research. In her research, she models weather and climate in the Great Lakes Region to assist with long-term climate projections and support regional forecasters. Part of her work focuses on identifying extreme precipitation patterns and anomalies associated with different atmospheric patterns.

“Over the past few days in the upper atmosphere, a broad region of low pressure has been building over the western half of the United States. At the same time, a broad region of high pressure has been developing over the Southeast,” Hutson said. “This atmospheric setup is known as a ‘blocking pattern,’ which causes weather events—like cold fronts, that typically move quickly from west to east—to stall over one location.

“The blocking pattern we are in right now is also set up in a way that causes ample moisture from the southern coast to be carried northward over the continent. When the moisture meets the stalled cold front, we get considerable amounts of rain that stays in one place. We expect to see the rainfall continue over the Ohio Valley and Mid-South for 2-3 more days, with some locations seeing up to 10-15 inches.”

Contact: [email protected]

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Carina Gronlund is a research assistant professor of epidemiology at the School of Public Health and Institute for Social Research. She has partnered with Mohammed Ombadi to quantify the benefits of flood reduction on human health in Detroit, one of 860 cities across the U.S. with a combined sewer system, meaning that storm water and sewage flow through the same pipes.

“There are quite a few risks to human health—physical and mental health—from flooding. These include drowning, electrocution and infections from contact with the flood waters,” Gronlund said. “Also, long-term mold growth in flooded areas of the home can exacerbate respiratory problems like asthma and allergies.

“Dealing with home damage, and potentially also relocation, is stressful and expensive, which can have short- and long-term mental health consequences. It’s important not to minimize or underestimate the long-term health consequences of these extreme events.”

Contact: [email protected]