ANN ARBOR—Oakland County’s economy has been so strong for so long that even a lousy year like 2006 cannot drop it from the ranks of the nation’s most prosperous counties, say University of Michigan economists.

Indeed, after losing more than 18,000 jobs last year, Oakland County still rates in the top three among comparably sized U.S. counties for conditions that nurture economic prosperity?greater educational attainment, a younger population, fewer children in poverty, higher earnings and income, and fewer households where monthly housing costs are excessive.

“Oakland’s affluent, well-educated community has much more promising prospects for long-term economic success than localities less endowed in these resources,” said George Fulton of the University of Michigan’s Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations. “Much of the recent travail in the Oakland County economy stems from the shrinkage of the industrial economy, particularly the segment that pertains to the domestic automotive industry.

“The adverse impact on auto-related activity has been dramatic. Coupled with a slumping residential construction market and general economic weakness dampening much of the service-providing sector, the Oakland economy turned sharply downward in 2006.”

In their annual forecast of the Oakland County economy, Fulton and colleague Don Grimes predict another 4,400 job losses this year. In 2008, they expect a net gain of only 200 jobs, before the recovery picks up a bit and adds 2,500 jobs in 2009.

Though Oakland is forecast to lose another 8,400 manufacturing jobs (more than two-thirds in the auto industry) and another 2,900 construction jobs (mostly residential) through 2009, private service-providing industries are projected to create 9,600 jobs during that time.

Health services will account for half of these net job gains, the economists say. Physicians’ offices, outpatient care and social assistance will see the most rapid growth. Private hospitals will add 700 jobs over the next three years, and the opening of the prospective medical school at Oakland University in 2010 will give hospital employment an additional boost.

Other service industries expected to see employment growth over the next three years include: administrative support, mostly in temporary help services and professional employer organizations (3,300 jobs); leisure and hospitality, primarily restaurants, golf courses and country clubs (1,800 jobs); professional and technical services (1,200 jobs); and information services (500 jobs).

Fulton and Grimes say that burgeoning employment in health services will be boosted by the growing number of Oakland County residents 65 and older, from 12 percent today to 25 percent by 2035. By comparison, the state of Florida?long known as a haven for the elderly?currently has a senior population of 17 percent.

“The aging of the population will intensify the demand for health care services?already one of the most vigorous sectors in Oakland County’s economy,” Grimes said. “There is little doubt that demand for health care workers will accelerate after 2009 and that there will be an increasing shortage of personnel to meet that demand.”

An aging population also will increase the demand for leisure and recreational services and for help in managing their retirement savings?which bodes well for the financial services industry, the economists say.

In addition to senior-related industries, which are expected to add 7,300 jobs to Oakland’s economy over the next three years, employment in nonautomotive technology and research is forecast to continue substantial growth.

From wireless telecommunications, software publishing and Internet and data processing services to research and development services, computer systems design and the manufacturing of computers and electronic products, more than 3,100 jobs will be created through 2009.

“Although the growing parts of the county’s economy cannot offset job losses caused by the downsizing of the domestic nameplate auto industry and the bursting of the residential real estate bubble, the best strategy for the county is to continue investing in activities that show promise for future growth, including health care, other senior-friendly ventures, technology and research,” Fulton said. “And Oakland County is already out front on this.

“Oakland County’s promise lies in its endowments and its actions and in the resolve of its residents to weather the ongoing economic restructuring that must be endured. For the Oakland County economy, to survive is only a short-term goal. To thrive is where our expectations belong.”

The 22nd annual U-M forecast of Oakland County’s economy was sponsored by 15 Oakland County organizations. Its presentation was hosted by the county’s Planning & Economic Development Services Division, Chase and Oakland Community College.