EXPERT ANALYSIS

Javed Ali, associate professor of practice at the University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy and former senior U.S. government counterterrorism official, shares insights on the protests across Iran, the deadly crackdown by government forces and the Trump administration’s involvement.

“The size and scale of the protests in Iran are a clear indicator that Iran’s clerical regime is under intense pressure, as are the ferocity of its crackdown that has already resulted in the deaths of thousands of Iranians, if not more,” Ali said. “Both the protests and the crackdown show no signs of abating, and the Supreme Leader and his inner circle are likely calculating this may be the ‘last stand’ for the regime given all the challenges it faces on the domestic front with a weak economy laboring under corruption, mismanagement and extensive sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the West.

“In addition, Iran’s military and security capabilities have been significantly damaged in the aftermath of Israel’s 12-day air campaign and U.S. strikes against it last summer, Iran’s partners in the region through the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’ are in far weaker shape than even a year ago, whether it be Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, or the Houthis in Yemen. With these and other challenges facing the clerical regime, it’s unclear if the conditions now suggest it could be toppled by the nationwide protest movement, or make a calculation to abandon the country and flee to another safe harbor.

“The possibility of U.S. or Israeli military action, in addition to public statements encouraging the protests to continue to resist and other possible avenues of support, could indeed make this a potentially historic “tipping point”—although the probability of that right now seems low.”

Contact: [email protected]