Mitt Romney’s eight-vote margin of victory in the Iowa Caucus is not statistically significant. However, the victory is symbolically significant and will play an important role in clearing the path for Mitt Romney to become the Republican nominee for president in 2012. First, even though the margin is small, Romney can still say that he is legitimately the ‘winner’ of the caucus. The subtly of the close margin may be ignored in how some observers perceive who is ‘winning’ the Republican nomination contest. Second, Romney’s principal challenge in Iowa came from candidates with regional, rather than national, appeal. It is unlikely that either Rick Santorum or Ron Paul will be able to mount a serious challenge to Romney in New Hampshire, where Romney is heavily favored. Instead, Newt Gingrich is likely to be the leading challenger to Romney in New Hampshire. Thus, if Romney wins the New Hampshire Primary, which he is expected to do, then he will have ‘won’ two consecutive contests, while a clear ‘second place’ candidate is unlikely to exist. These two victories would give Romney perceived momentum going into South Carolina, which would help him acquire additional endorsements and financial resources, providing him with a considerable advantage over his opponents, who are likely to be running short on resources by the time of the South Carolina Primary. A victory for Romney in South Carolina would effectively end the Republican nominating contest, leaving only symbolic opposition to his candidacy.

Romney still faces challenges that stand in his way of potentially becoming the Republican nominee. First, fundamentalist Christians remain suspicious about Romney’s Mormon faith. Second, strong conservatives remain suspicious of Romney’s ideological credentials. Nonetheless, Romney is likely to be able to capture the nomination despite these doubts. A majority of Republican primary-goers may prefer ‘someone other than Romney’, but there are no signs that a plurality is likely to agree on who this alternative should be. In short, lack of consensus within the Republican Party is likely to be to Romney’s advantage.

These dynamics are the advantage of the Republican Party in the general election. Of the current Republican candidates, Romney is the one with the most potential appeal to moderate voters, who will be essential to winning the general election.

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