ANN ARBOR—University of Michigan experts are available to comment on the implications of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2004 poverty data, being released Tuesday (Aug. 30).

Last year, the Census report indicated that 12.5 percent of Americans–that’s 35.9 million people–were at the poverty level in 2003, up 0.4 percentage points (1.3 million people more than 2002).

The Census Bureau will probably report a small decline in the poverty rate between 2003 and 2004, said Sheldon Danziger, who, along with Rebecca Blank, co-directs the National Poverty Center at U-M’s Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. The center analyzes the causes and consequences of poverty and the effects of anti-poverty policies.

“I suspect that the 2004 poverty rate will fall below the 2002 level but will still be above the 2001 level,” said Danziger, the Henry J. Meyer Distinguished Professor of Public Policy. “No matter what the Census bureau reports, there has not been much progress against poverty over the last three decades. Poverty rates were in the 11- to 12-percent range from 1969 to 1979.”

The official poverty rate climbed from 11.7 to 12.1 percent of Americans between 2001 and 2002, and inched to 12.5 percent in 2003. Meanwhile, the country’s unemployment rate increased from 5.8 percent in 2002 to 6.0 percent in 2003, but dipped to 5.5 percent last year.

Robert Schoeni, an associate research professor at U-M’s Institute for Social Research, noted that poverty rates among certain groups — minorities, single mothers and widows — remained disturbingly high. “And these high rates are not likely to drop substantially by improvements in the macro economy alone,” said Schoeni, whose research interests include welfare policy and labor economics.

The U.S. Census Bureau reports the poverty threshold for a family of four in 2004 was $19,484; for a family of three, $14,776; for a family of two, $12,649; and for unrelated individuals, $9,827.

Danziger can be reached at (734) 615-8321 or sheldond@umich.edu. For more information on him, visit http://ipumich.temppublish.com/public/experts/ExpDisplay.php?ExpID=174

Schoeni can be contacted to (734) 763-5131 or bschoeni@umich.edu. For more information on him, visit http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/people/Faculty/schoeni-b.htm

Blank, the Ford School’s dean, is available at (734) 763-2258 or blank@umich.edu. For more information about her, visit http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/faculty_staff/person_display.php?personid=34

Related links:

National Poverty Center: http://www.npc.umich.edu/

U.S. Census Bureau: http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/            

sheldond@umich.edubschoeni@umich.edublank@umich.eduhttp://www.npc.umich.edu/http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/