U-M political science professors available to discuss 2004 presidential race

January 15, 2003
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ANN ARBOR—While national security concerns capture the attention of American citizens, now is the time for Democratic hopefuls to step into the 2004 presidential race if they want to refocus discussion on domestic issues such as health care, education and the economy, several U-M political science professors say. And even though the next election is nearly two years away, the candidates need the time to raise money, the experts say. “It’s anyone’s guess at this point who will become the (Democratic) party’s nominee,” said Edie Goldenberg, a professor of Political Science and Public Policy. “But by announcing their candidacy early, these hopefuls can test their ability to raise money and capture media attention. They will be working hard to refocus the public’s attention on domestic issues, such as education and the economy.” Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman announced Monday his intention to run for president in 2004. Others running for office include Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean. Some people considering a bid are Delaware Sen. Joseph Biden, former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart and Rev. Al Sharpton, a civil rights activist. To be successful, a Democrat has to be able to raise enough money to sustain an active campaign through the primary season—which will be shorter next time—and sharpen discussion on domestic issues such as health care, education and the economy, without allowing the Republicans to capture the issue agenda with national security concerns, she said. World events add an unusual amount of uncertainty for everyone this time, Goldenberg noted. Nick Valentino, an assistant professor who teaches courses in political communication and public opinion, notes that federal parties can no longer accept soft money from corporations and unions to run advertisements on behalf of candidates seeking office. Thus, candidates need even more time to solicit donations from individuals and political action committees. While spending early can help candidates build national name recognition before the primaries, polls suggest that most people don’t pay attention to the campaign more than a year before elections, he said. Voters might be familiar with the candidates, but could change their minds significantly over the next year, Valentino said. Candidates must raise millions of dollars by October so political ads can be ready for February 2004, said Michael Traugott, a senior research scientist for the Center for Political Studies. The ability to raise money shows a candidate’s viability, and will be needed in early 2004 for the first caucus in Iowa and the first primary in New Hampshire. “The schedule is more compressed in 2004 than in 2000 and 1996, so there is more pressure to raise money sooner,” Traugott said. For more information about the professors, visit these sites:

Goldenbergwww.fordschool.umich.edu/people/Faculty/goldenberg-e.htm

Traugotthttp://polisci.lsa.umich.edu/faculty/mtraugott.html

Valentino
www.lsa.umich.edu/comm/Faculty/valentino.htm